Thursday, August 2, 2007

Refugees are People First, Not Problems -So, While Crime Soars...

If South Africa were in the meltdown Zim is facing, the rational normal human being would sooner place himself at extreme risk of humiliation and suffering than feel the sense of helplessness one must feel when unable to feed one's children. It must really hit home for every proud Zimbabwean parent who knew that his country enjoyed higher standards of living than other African countries as recently as 6 years ago that there isn't a hope in hell that his children will see the same quality of life.

The people streaming across the border for a better life are breaking our laws but that doesn't make them below human. President Mbeki is relying on that natural racism and xenophobia so prevalent in our society as a second pillar to his flat-earth diplomacy if he thinks he can pressure Mugabe by saying that South Africans will rebel against the alien invasion at some point. One of the reasons crime has surged in South Africa in the last 18 months is Zimbabwe's meltdown. Hold on! It's not for the reason that naturally and simplistically comes to mind.

Let's assume the average policeman on the beat makes 4000/month risking his life against violent criminals on a daily basis. Then one day this surge of easily identifiable illegal aliens arrives in Johannesburg and he sees walking ATMs that he can extort for R 20 per person with very little effort while looking busy and visible at the same time. It doesn't take a Harvard MBA to figure out that doing this 5 days a week to 10 people per day will net him an extra tax-free salary in a relatively risk free way. Cops are so distracted hunting for these ATMs that normal crime fighting is beginning to suffer visibly.

It's relatively easy to find measurable factors that support this hypothesis. For starters, the going-rate for catching, extorting a bribe and releasing an illegal African alien has fallen by an order of magnitude since last year. Economically speaking, this can only happen in a clearing market that is rapidly re-setting equilibrium as developments unfold. If extortion wasn't a widespread practice and the simple xenophobic crime explanation held, it should be getting more expensive for an illegal to bribe himself out of custody at a roadblock given the worsening situation in Zimbabwe.

I know this is an unpalatable argument for many but we have to face the fact that our cops are underpaid and corrupt and the temptation is proving irresistible to a critical mass of feet-on-the-street officers among them. The market doesn't lie, just like the price of drugs go up after major busts that disrupt the drug trade.

I would hazard a guess that crime would actually fall if police were forbidden from questioning people's immigration status and from arresting prostitutes unless they were in active commission of another crime. Go figure! 98% of our prison population, both awaiting trialists and convicts, is SA native. Either these illegals, who didn't commit much violent crime in Zimbabwe become remarkably good at evading police and hiding in an unfamiliar country the moment they cross the Limpopo or we are kidding ourselves about the true sources of violent crime. Most violent crime is committed by entitled, young black South African men who drop out of school, take drugs and are comfortable intimidating people with violence. Yes, there are many Zimbabwean criminals active in South Africa but the overwhelming majority of crime is home-grown barbarism.

Zim illegals add to urban squalor, live in unhygienic conditions and bottom-feed on casual jobs that should be done by unemployed and unskilled South Africans and unscrupulous employers that hire them should be prosecuted. That said, the visceral reaction emanating from people about the cross-border flows seem to be directed at finding someone to blame for some real home-grown issues.

I can't for the life of me understand how someone can be out on bail for 2 different violent offences simultaneously, or why someone arrested with the use of lethal force deserves a bail hearing. C*** like this contributes to the culture of impunity that is pervasive in South Africa's criminal class.

As long as policemen know they can get free sex and double their salaries without risk to their lives, perverse incentives will continue to dominate a disproportionate amount of police time. The sickening thing is how popular the arrest figures are and the false sense of action and security they give the nation when they are announced. People see roadblocks all around and feel like the police are doing something. Yes they are, but it ain't keeping you safe, far from it.

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